What Has Your Montgomery County Home Really Done Since 2016?
September 10, 2026
Ten-plus years of detached-home sales, 2016 through September 2026
Everyone quotes the “average sale price,” but that number rises and falls with which homes happen to sell. To find out what an individual house has actually gained, we went back through every closed detached-home sale in Montgomery County from January 2016 through September 8, 2026 — 67,744 sales in all — and tracked the homes that sold more than once. Here is what we found.
2016 to 2026
sale price
2016 vs. 2026
Part 1: Same-Home Appreciation vs. the Average Sale Price
We identified 6,802 cases where the same detached home sold twice between 2016 and 2026 (at least a year apart, with no major additions between sales) and used those pairs to build a “same-home” price index — the same method behind the Case-Shiller index. It measures what a typical house gained, not what a different mix of houses sold for.
Same-Home Price Index (2016 = 100)
Average Sale Price, All Detached Homes
Year by Year
| Year | Same-Home Index | Same-Home YoY | Since 2016 | Avg. Sale Price | Avg. Price YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 100.0 | — | +0.0% | $655,848 | — |
| 2017 | 103.2 | +3.2% | +3.2% | $679,125 | +3.5% |
| 2018 | 110.1 | +6.7% | +10.1% | $707,081 | +4.1% |
| 2019 | 114.4 | +3.9% | +14.4% | $715,454 | +1.2% |
| 2020 | 119.4 | +4.4% | +19.4% | $774,323 | +8.2% |
| 2021 | 134.2 | +12.4% | +34.2% | $874,663 | +13.0% |
| 2022 | 145.1 | +8.1% | +45.1% | $941,879 | +7.7% |
| 2023 | 147.8 | +1.9% | +47.8% | $969,317 | +2.9% |
| 2024 | 156.4 | +5.8% | +56.4% | $1,020,731 | +5.3% |
| 2025 | 158.0 | +1.0% | +58.0% | $1,050,085 | +2.9% |
| 2026* | 159.1 | +0.7% | +59.1% | $1,072,834 | +2.2% |
*2026 covers closings from January 1 through September 8, 2026. Same-Home Index: repeat-sales index, 2016 = 100. Avg. Sale Price: Bright MLS statistics for all closed detached sales, Montgomery County, MD.
What it means: A typical Montgomery County detached home is worth about 59% more today than in 2016, while the county-wide average sale price rose about 64%. The gap is the “mix effect”: in recent years, more of the homes changing hands have been larger, newer, or in higher-priced neighborhoods, which lifts the average faster than any one house has actually appreciated. The two measures agree on the big picture — steady gains through 2019, a surge in 2020–2022, and a cooler, more modest climb since — but the same-home figure is the one to use when you ask, “What is my house worth now?”
Part 2: Sales Volume and Days on Market
Detached Homes Sold Per Year
Average Days on Market
Year by Year
| Year | Homes Sold | Avg. Sale Price | Median Price | Avg. DOM | Median DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 7,005 | $655,848 | $540,000 | 46 | 22 |
| 2017 | 6,897 | $679,125 | $560,000 | 39 | 18 |
| 2018 | 6,679 | $707,081 | $588,000 | 36 | 15 |
| 2019 | 7,008 | $715,454 | $595,000 | 35 | 15 |
| 2020 | 7,316 | $774,323 | $635,000 | 26 | 8 |
| 2021 | 8,085 | $874,663 | $714,995 | 16 | 7 |
| 2022 | 6,167 | $941,879 | $750,000 | 16 | 7 |
| 2023 | 4,738 | $969,317 | $780,000 | 20 | 7 |
| 2024 | 5,028 | $1,020,731 | $825,000 | 19 | 7 |
| 2025 | 5,098 | $1,050,085 | $831,000 | 24 | 11 |
| 2026* | 3,723 | $1,072,834 | $859,000 | 25 | 8 |
Source: Bright MLS, closed detached sales in Montgomery County, MD. DOM = days on market. 2026 is January 1 through September 8.
What it means: Sales volume peaked at 8,085 homes in 2021 and then fell by more than 40% by 2023 as higher mortgage rates kept would-be sellers in place. Volume has recovered modestly since. Homes sold fastest in 2021–2022, when the average was about 16 days and half of all homes went under contract within a week. Today the average is about 25 days — slower than the frenzy years, but still roughly half the 46-day average of 2016. Well-priced homes still move quickly; the market simply has more patience than it did.
What Drove the Market
2016–2019: The Long Recovery
Montgomery County entered 2016 still working through the aftermath of the 2008 housing crash. Prices had bottomed around 2011–2012, and the years that followed were a slow, steady climb with 30-year mortgage rates between roughly 3.7% and 4.5%. Same-home values grew a healthy 3–7% per year, homes took over a month to sell on average, and sellers typically accepted slightly below asking price. It was a balanced, predictable market.
2020–2021: COVID and Record-Low Rates
The pandemic briefly froze activity in spring 2020, then set off the strongest seller’s market in a generation. Mortgage rates fell to an annual average of about 3.1% in 2020 and under 3% in 2021 — the lowest on record — while buyers working from home wanted more space. Detached homes were exactly what they were looking for. Sales volume jumped to over 8,000 in 2021, the average time on market collapsed to about two weeks, and same-home values rose more than 12% in a single year. Bidding wars pushed the typical sale above asking price for the first time in this data.
2022–2023: The Rate Shock
To fight inflation, the Federal Reserve raised rates faster than at any time since the early 1980s. The 30-year mortgage rate more than doubled, averaging about 5.3% in 2022 and 6.8% in 2023, and briefly topping 8% in October 2023. The effect on prices was surprisingly small — same-home values still gained about 8% in 2022 and held on to those gains in 2023 — but the effect on activity was dramatic. Owners with 3% mortgages had little reason to move, listings dried up, and sales fell to under 5,000 in 2023, the lowest of the period. Scarce inventory kept prices from falling even as affordability worsened.
2024–2026: A Slower, Steadier Market
Rates have settled in the mid-6% range, and the market has adjusted to them. Sales have edged back above 5,000 a year, average days on market has drifted up into the low-to-mid 20s, and same-home appreciation has moderated to the low single digits — a return to something closer to the pre-pandemic norm. For homeowners, the headline is that the 2020–2022 gains have held: a typical detached home bought in 2016 is worth about 59% more today, and one bought at the 2019 pre-pandemic level has gained roughly 39%.
“But Charlie & Debbie, what about townhouses and condominiums? How have they done?”
Good question — and they have followed a different path than detached homes. We are running the same same-home analysis on Montgomery County townhouses and condominiums now, and those reports are coming next. Check back on the blog soon.
What has your home done?
County-wide numbers are a starting point. Values vary from neighborhood to neighborhood, and sometimes from street to street. If you would like a same-home analysis for your own house, or a no-obligation look at what it would bring in today’s market, we would be glad to put one together for you.
Get your Montgomery County Home Values Report →Charlie Chapman, Associate Broker
The Encore Team • RE/MAX Realty Services
Cell: 240-351-8214 | Office: 240-403-0400 x319
Charlie@TheEncoreTeam.net
Questions about buying a home?
Ten years of numbers tell one clear story: waiting for prices to fall has not been a winning strategy in Montgomery County. Whether you are a first-time buyer, moving up, or downsizing, we can walk you through what today’s rates and inventory mean for you and how our Homefinder programs can help you find the right home — including homes that never hit the open market.
Join the Special Homefinder Program →About the numbers. Sales data: Bright MLS, all closed detached-home sales in Montgomery County, MD, with close dates from January 1, 2016 through September 8, 2026 (67,744 sales). The same-home index is a repeat-sales index estimated from 6,802 pairs of sales of the same address at least 12 months apart, excluding pairs where the above-grade square footage changed more than 15% or the price ratio was outside 0.5–3.0. Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey annual averages. 2026 figures are year-to-date and will change as the year closes out. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
The Encore Team • RE/MAX Realty Services • 15245 Shady Grove Road, Suite 100, Rockville, MD 20850. Each RE/MAX office is independently owned and operated.
